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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with American diplomats are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives will present the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the contentious issues between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the war is not guaranteed, especially given the Russian lack of participation from the current dialogue.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president noted that the US Congress is expected to vote on security guarantees and that a complete package of agreements might be ready “imminently.” He added that, the U.S. would hold consultations with Russian representatives, potentially followed by summit-level talks as soon as this weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five documents. Some of them concern binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, voted on and endorsed by the US Congress,” the president remarked to journalists. He clarified that these guarantees would “reflect article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, US officials did not provide precise information regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or what would happen if Moscow sought to capture more land after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European countries said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting maritime security, potentially by conducting operations within Ukraine.”

They stopped short, however, of proposing these measures would constitute guarantees matching Nato’s article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Russia is near accepting the kind of arrangement under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

The following day, the Russian government stated it had not seen the specifics of the proposals on security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, asserted that the country would not agree to forces of Nato countries being stationed in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts remains the issue of land. One proposal centers on Ukraine relinquishing the areas of the Donbas region it still holds, while Ukraine wants to freeze the lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. You know, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy said following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russia would not move forward, with the resulting zone becoming “a free economic zone.” Russia has indicated it could use internal security formations instead of the army in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Moscow. Not legally or in practice do we accept the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” said Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will resolve the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement such as a free economic zone could be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a referendum. The major impediment is likely to be when the plans are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with precisely the situation we are experiencing on our plane right now – instability,” commented Zelenskyy, making the statement as his aircraft took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with additional armaments if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the United States,” he concluded.